Saturday, April 07, 2007
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Forex Daily result
nothing could make me happier other than winning pips each days. this is my most recent result
i just spend another 100usd to buy some sort of trading book just to study my long term skills. as you can see i dont gain much pip but since im using bigger margin then i can secure more profit, but that doesnt really a good technique as i need to sit almost 8hour per day in front of my monitor
someone ask me, am i a part time trader? i hardly to answer this question. how can i saw this is my part time job when i spend most of my time infront of my pc than doing some other job?
my online schedule is
Monday - Friday
7pm - 4am ..........rest........... continue again at 8.30am - 12pm (total 12hour 30min per day!!!)
12.30pm - 6.45pm working at school (6hour 15 min)
saturday - sunday
10am morning - 5am morning
man im serious, if you look at my working hour, i spend most of my life "WORKING". so do appreciate your rest hour when you got time to do that :D
Crap
Ronne
Monday, September 25, 2006
Forex Daily result
im not that good enough in trading but i think i getting better in trading this recently. i manage to control my emotion and be cool while trading even in bad times. I hope this will keep on growing in the future!
walaupun amount kicil2an tapi tu baru mau test berapa pip bulih dapat, nanti main basar sikit2. stock egold ada banyak tinggal mau masuk dalam marketiva saja ni :D
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Life as a trader, my forex history
2 hari yang lalu saya memulakan trading dengan modal yang sangat kecil, cukup untuk test market dan trading skills saya sendiri. hasil daripada banyak membaca dan kawalan nafsu, disiplin dan money management, saya berjaya mendapat 30pips dari hari pertama trading.
hari kedua 93pips! sangat gembira! sebab inilah kali pertama berjaya "menghijaukan" trade2 yang ada, dan hari kedua semua trade hijau. tiada merah. dan ini bukan hasil dari gambling namun dari signal stoch oversold overbought yang saya analysiskan. saya juga bersyukur kerana benda ni juga agak tepat.
kalau dapat meneruskan rentak trading macam ni saya mungkin akan menimbang retire terus dari bidang Hyip dan sewaktu dengannya!
Ron
Sunday, August 13, 2006
What are the differences between trading and gambling?
By Zoran Kolundzic
Many people think that trading is similar to gambling. Is this really the case?
For example, let’s take a look at Black Jack. If you start with $10,000 gambling capital, placing bets of $100 per hand and play 100 hands per day, how long will you last? In the game of Black Jack, with Las Vegas Strip rules, a casino has a built-in advantage of 1.5% over the player in the long run. That means that on average, a player will lose $1.5 per any $100 he bets with. After 100 hands, on average he’ll be down $150. Starting with a capital of $10,000 a player would last about 67 gambling days. That is very similar to the previously described trading scenario. In such case I would choose gambling because at least I would be losing my money in a more pleasant environment.
I chose Black Jack for our example because it is the only casino game in which it is possible for a skilled player to increase his odds to such extent as to be able to beat the House in the long run. A skilled counter can obtain advantage of up to 1.5% per hand over the House in the long run. That means that such a player playing 100 hands per day and average hand being $100 could double his gambling capital of $10,000 in less than 50 days. Similar odds apply to trading stocks, with more potential for profit and less chances for being kicked out of a casino. In order to make it work for you, we’ll need to get the odds on your side. Now lets look at how we can extract as much profits from our trades as possible.
Understanding Trailing Stops
Once you are in the trade and the price has started moving in your direction, you need to extract as much profit as possible. Not being able to do so will make you a losing trader in the long run. How can a trader lose if he only takes small profits at a time? Profit is profit, isn’t it? Not exactly… Profit of $550 is not the same as a profit of $850. If such profits are followed by three losses of $200 each, profit of $550 will become $50 loss, while profit of $850 will become $250 win. Do you get my point?
Profits are always followed by losses and if the profits are small they will not make up for the losses that will eventually and surely follow. However, becoming too greedy can turn a small profit into a loss. This will make you lose money in the long run. The best solution to resolving these conflicts is to use trailing stops.
As the name says, trailing stop follows the stock price that is moving in your direction. For example, let’s say that we have bought two S&P 500 contracts at 875. We will automatically put our stop loss at 1 point below the support line or if that is over our 4% limit we will put our stop loss at 871. The price starts to move upwards and reaches 876. We will now move our stop loss at $871.75. For every one point move in our direction we will move our stop loss 0.75 points up (or down if we were in a shortsell trade).
However if we were trading two contracts and the price has in our example hit 879 (4 points profit for ES or 10 points for NQ) we would sell one contract to protect our profit and for the remaining contract we would use trailing stop.
Saturday, May 13, 2006
♂ Success And Bouncing Back From Your Failure
Famously known as Wall Street's "Trader Vic".
The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.
Bruce Kovner
Has earned as much as $300 million in one year from trading
You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael [Marcus] taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money. Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I'm getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis. I never think about other people who may be using the same stop, because the market shouldn't go there if I am right. Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined primarily by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose. If you personalize losses, you can't trade.
Michael Marcus
Turned $30,000 into $80 million
Taking advantage of potential major winning trades is not only important to the mental health of the trader but is also critical to winning. Letting winners ride is every bit as important as cutting losses short. If you don't stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers. In addition to not overtrading, it is important to commit to an exit point on every trade. Protective stops are very important because they force this commitment on the trader.
Jack D Schwager
Author "The New Market Wizards"
Trading provides one of the last great frontiers of opportunity in our economy. It is one of the very few ways in which an individual can start with a relatively small bankroll and actually become a multimillionaire. Of course, only a handful of individuals succeed in turning this feat, but at least the opportunity exists. A rigid stop-loss rule is an essential ingredient to the trading approach of many successful traders. Winning streaks lead to complacency, and complacency leads to sloppy trading.
Richard Dennis
Turned $400 into $200 million trading futures
When things go bad, traders shouldn't stick their head in the sand and just hope it gets better. You should always have a worst-case point. The only choice should be to get out quicker. The worst mistake a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. 95 percent of profits come from only 5 percent of the trades.
Jerry Parker
Probably my best technique is not picking up the phone to close out a winning trade.
Bernard Baruch
Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news. Have an opinion on what the market should do but don't decide what the market will do. Be happy with a percentage of the move.
Paul Tudor Jones
Turned $1.5 million into $300 million in five years
That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, "Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?" I had to learn discipline and money management. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading. I spend my day trying to make myself as happy and relaxed as I can be. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Risk control is the most important thing in trading. I keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades. When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position size when my trading is worst. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them... Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start. The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense. Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum possible draw down. Hopefully, I spend the rest of the day enjoying positions that are going in my direction. If they are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out. Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
Gary Bielfeldt
The most important thing is to have a method for staying with your winners and getting rid of your losers. By having thought out your objective and having a strategy for getting out in case the market trend changes, you greatly increase the potential for staying in your winning positions. The traits of a successful trader: The most important is discipline - I am sure everyone says that. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fourth, you must have a willingness to lose; that is also related to adequate capitalization. Fifth, you need a strong desire to win. You have to have the attitude that if a trade loses, you can handle it without any problem and come back to do the next trade. You can't let a losing trade get to you emotionally. If a trade doesn't look right, I get out and take a small loss.
Larry Hite
Turned a $2 million managed account into $800 million in 8 years
Throughout my financial career, I have continually witnessed examples of other people that I have known being ruined by a failure to respect risk. If you don't take a hard look at risk, it will take you. If you argue with the market, you will lose. It is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect. Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical. I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don't bet, you can't win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can't bet. Frankly, I don't see markets. I see risks, rewards, and money.
Michael Steinhardt
The word 'trading' is not the way I think of things. I may be a trader in the sense that my frequency of transactions is relatively high, but the word 'investing' would apply just as much, if not more. In my mind, trading implies an anticipation of a sale at the time of purchase. Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake. The balance between confidence and humility is best learned through extensive experience and mistakes. There should always be respect for the person on the other side of the trade. Always ask yourself: Why does he want to sell? What does he know that I don't? All great traders are seekers of truth. The markets are always changing, and the successful trader needs to adapt to these changes.
William O'Neil
Turned $5,000 into $200,000 in 1962 with 3 consecutive trades
Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors. With an individual stock, you absolutely have to have a stop-loss point, because you never know how far down the stock is going. I remember selling a $100 stock one time and it eventually went to $1. I didn't have any idea it was going down that far, but what would have happened if I had held on to it? One mistake like that and you can't come back. The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly. ... Some investors have trouble making decisions to buy or sell. In other words, they vacillate and can't make up their minds. They are unsure because they really don't know what they are doing. They do not have a plan, a set of principles, or rules to guide them and, therefore, are uncertain of what they should be doing.
David Ryan
Won Stanford University's Investing Championships and earned 1,400% return over 3 years
The more disciplined you can get, the better you are going to do in the market. The more you listen to tips and rumors, the more money you're likely to lose. My percentage of winners is only about 50/50, because I cut my losers very quickly. The maximum loss I allow is 7 percent, and usually I am out of a losing stock a lot quicker. I make my money on the few stocks a year that double and triple in price. The profits in those trades easily makes up for all the small losers. If you really think the stock is going to make a big move - and that should be the only reason you are buying the stock to begin with - then there is no reason to haggle over an eighth of a point. Just buy the stock. The same thing applies to the downside; if you think the stock is going to drop, just sell it. The single most important advice I can give anybody is: Learn from your mistakes. That is the only way to become a successful trader.
Thursday, April 27, 2006
♂ Guide With Forex (Foreign Exchange)
What is Forex Trading?
The Forex Market is a 24-hour international market where banks, hedge funds, international corporations, and individuals from all over the world are active participants. The sheer scope of market participation and volume of activity insures around-the-clock activity making this an ideal market for trading at all times.Currencies have the tendency to trend heavily and rarely spend much time in tight trading ranges. These two characteristics are central for short to medium term trading. On a daily basis, traders can easily identify new trends and breakouts providing multiple opportunities to exit and enter positions.The Foreign Exchange market allows positions to be leveraged up to 200:1, providing tremendous upside potential. This means with $1000 margin deposit you can place a $200,000 position in the market. Foreign Exchange provides much better leverage then the futures market, which requires a 2%-5% margin and the equities market, which requires at least 50% initial margin. A 1% movement in the FX market can triple the value of your entire investment. Leverage is a double-edged sword, and without proper risk management, the market can move against you and cause the lost of initial investment.In the Foreign Exchange market there are no restrictions on short selling, which means that a trader can take advantage of an upward or downward market. Traders can buy or sell a currency with equal ease.
Two Ways to Trade
There are two basic approaches to analyzing currency markets, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The fundamental analyst concentrates on the underlying causes of price movements, while the technical analyst studies the price movements themselves.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Historical currency data is used to forecast the direction of future prices. The premise of technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions. The primary tools of the technical analyst are charts. Charts are used to identify trends and patterns in order to find buying and selling opportunities. The most basic concept of technical analysis is that markets have a tendency to trend, or either increasing or decreasing. Being able to identify trends in their earliest stage of development is the key to technical analysis.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis focuses on the economic, social and political forces that drive supply and demand. Fundamental analysts look at various macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment. However, there is no single set of beliefs that guide fundamental analysis. There are several theories as to how currencies should be valued.Fundamentals Every Trader Should KnowCurrency prices reflect the balance of supply and demand for currencies. Two primary factors affecting the supply and demand are interest rates and the overall strength of the economy. Economic indicators such as GDP, foreign investment and the trade balance reflect the general health of an economy and are therefore responsible for the underlying shifts in supply and demand for that currency. There is a tremendous amount of data released at regular intervals and some of the data is more important than others. The ones that are looked at more closely are those related to interest rates and international trade.
Interest Rates
If the market has uncertainty regarding interest rates, then any bit of news regarding interest rates can directly affect the currency markets. Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen in relation to other countries as investors shift assets there to gain a higher return on the interest rate. Hikes in interest rates, however, are generally bad news for stock markets. Some investors will transfer money out of a country's stock market when interest rates are hiked, causing the country's currency to weaken. Which effect dominates can be tricky, but generally there is a consensus beforehand as to what the interest rate move will do. Indicators that have the biggest impact on interest rates are PPI, CPI and GDP. Generally the timing of interest rate moves is known in advance. They take place after regularly scheduled meetings by the BOE, FED, ECB, BOJ, and other central banks.
International Trade
The trade balance shows the net difference over a period of time between a nation’s exports and imports. When a country imports more than it exports the trade balance will show a deficit, which is generally considered unfavorable. For example, if U.S dollars are sold for other domestic national currencies (to pay for imports), the flow of dollars outside the country will depreciate the value of the currency. Similarly if trade figures show an increase in exports, dollars will flow into the United States and appreciate the value of the currency. From the standpoint of a national economy, a deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing; If the deficit is greater than market expectations then it will trigger a negative price movement.
What are SOME of the Risks Involved?
Margined Currency Trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and is only suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. An account with RefcoFX permits you to trade foreign currencies on a highly leveraged basis (up to approximately 200 times your account equity). An initial deposit of $1,000 will enable the account holder to take a maximum position with $200,000 market value. The funds in an account trading at maximum leverage can be completely lost, if the position(s) held in the account has a 1/2 percent swing in value.
Theoretically, an account could lose more than the equity it contains, if the account is trading at maximum leverage and positions held in the account swing more than 1/2 percent in value. Given the possibility of losing one's entire investment, speculation in the foreign exchange market should only be conducted with risk capital funds that if lost will not significantly affect one's personal or institution's financial well-being.